87 lines
5.4 KiB
Markdown
87 lines
5.4 KiB
Markdown
# The Daily Pour (T-00) — SBA Loan Financial Projection: Assumptions
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**Companion to:** `daily-pour-sba-projection.csv` (24-month P&L)
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**Entity:** SnS Hospitality Group LLC · **Purpose:** SBA 7(a) loan application (~$60,000, payment <$900/mo)
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**Prepared:** 2026-08 · Format follows what an SBA lender expects ("numbers + assumptions — show your work")
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> This is the "assumptions" document SBA lenders require alongside the projection. Every number in
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> the CSV traces back to a stated assumption here. Figures are estimates from the business plan and
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> industry benchmarks; actuals will vary.
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---
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## Revenue assumptions
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- **Average ticket: $8.00** — blended across drip, espresso drinks, specialty drinks, and food add-ons
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(consistent with the business plan and the local market-needs analysis).
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- **Operating days: 26/month** — 6 days/week (closed Sundays), ~312 days/year.
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- **Revenue formula:** `Customers/Day × $8.00 × 26 days`.
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- **Year 1 ramp (customers/day):** a new location builds a customer base — it does NOT open at full
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volume. Monthly ramp: 40 → 55 → 65 → 75 → 82 → 88 → 92 → 95 → 97 → 98 → 99 → 100. This reaches the
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business plan's **100/day target** by month 12. (A flat 100/day from day one would be non-credible
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to a lender; the ramp is the honest, defensible curve.)
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- **Year 2:** hold **100 customers/day** and apply a **5% revenue lift** (modest price/traffic growth),
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→ ~$21,840/month.
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## Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
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- **15% of revenue** — coffee, milk, syrups, cups/lids, food. Supported by the ~6× (600%) markup grid
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in `purchase-pricing.csv` (e.g., espresso shot cost ~$0.35 → sells in a ~$4–5 drink). COGS scales
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with revenue (it is variable, not fixed).
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- **Gross profit = Revenue − COGS** (≈ 85% gross margin).
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## Operating expenses (monthly)
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| Line | Amount | Assumption |
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|------|--------|-----------|
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| **Payroll (loaded)** | **$5,840** | Location Manager (FT, ~$18/hr loaded ≈ $2,880) + part-time staff ($2,240) + part-time marketing ($720). "Loaded" = includes employer payroll taxes. **Year 2: +3% cost-of-living raise** → $6,015. |
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| Lot rent | $750 | Leased high-traffic parking spot ($500–750/mo range; using top of range). |
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| Insurance | $330 | General liability + workers' comp. |
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| Fuel / propane | $130 | Generator fuel + propane. |
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| Water / waste | $200 | Fresh-water fill + gray/black tank pump-outs (~every 2–3 weeks). |
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| Cellular / data | $75 | 4G/5G plan for POS + cameras + remote management. |
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| **Square fees** | **2.7% of revenue** | Card processing — variable, scales with sales. |
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| Misc / repairs | $300 | Maintenance reserve, small repairs, supplies. |
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## Loan assumptions (the interest expense)
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- **Amount: $60,000** SBA 7(a) — funds trailer + buildout + equipment + working-capital cushion.
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Sized so the payment stays **under $900/mo even at the worst realistic rate** (see below).
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- **Rate: 12.75% APR** (variable; the small-loan rate *cap* = Prime ~6.75% + 6.0%). Modeled at the cap
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as the worst case; a well-qualified borrower may negotiate 11.5–12%, which lowers the payment further.
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- **Term: 10 years (120 months), fully amortizing.** The 10-year term is what keeps ~$60K under $900/mo
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— a 7-year term would cap the loan near $51K for the same payment.
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- **Monthly payment (P+I): ~$887.04** — **under the $900 ceiling, guaranteed at the rate cap.**
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Only the **interest** portion is tax-deductible; principal is not. Interest starts ~$638/mo, declining.
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- **If staying under $900 is a hard limit:** ask the lender for a **fixed rate** — variable 7(a) rates
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rise if Prime rises, which could push a variable loan over $900 later. Fixed locks $60K under $900.
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- **One-time SBA guaranty fee (~$1,000–1,500)** typically financed into the loan (not a monthly line).
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- *Sizing rationale: max loan keeping payment <$900 is ~$60,900 at the 12.75% cap; $60,000 is the round,
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safe target (~$887/mo). Larger amounts ($63–65K) only fit under $900 at better-than-cap rates.*
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## Results (from the CSV)
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| Metric | Value |
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|--------|-------|
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| **Year 1 net profit** | **~$66,600** (ramping) |
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| **Year 2 net profit** | **~$111,400** (steady 100/day) |
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| Steady-state monthly net (100/day) | ~$8,600/month |
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| **Break-even** | **~50 customers/day** (matches business plan's ~51) |
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| Customers/day for ~$3,000/mo to Sam (85% share) | **~71/day** |
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| **Loan payment** | **~$887/mo** ($60K, 10yr, 12.75% cap — under the $900 ceiling) |
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## Key break-even & target notes
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- **Break-even ≈ 50 customers/day** → covers all fixed costs + the loan payment. Below this, the trailer loses money.
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- **~71 customers/day** → business nets ~$3,530/mo, so **Sam's 85% ≈ $3,000/mo** (before setting aside taxes). This is comfortably **below** the 100/day plan target.
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- The **$3K profit floor is hit well before full ramp** — around month 4–5 of Year 1.
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- **Tax reserve:** set aside ~35% of your 85% share for income taxes (separate from the payroll taxes already inside "Payroll"). Loan principal is NOT deductible; only interest is.
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## For the lender packet, pair this with:
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- The 24-month CSV (`daily-pour-sba-projection.csv`)
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- Business plan (`business-plan.html`)
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- Trailer/equipment quote + supplier list (`supplier-research.html`, `purchase-pricing.csv`)
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- Owner equity contribution + personal financial statement (lenders require owner "skin in the game")
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*Estimates for lender evaluation. Have an Indiana CPA confirm tax treatment for a multi-member LLC before finalizing.*
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