5.4 KiB
5.4 KiB
The Daily Pour (T-00) — SBA Loan Financial Projection: Assumptions
Companion to: daily-pour-sba-projection.csv (24-month P&L)
Entity: SnS Hospitality Group LLC · Purpose: SBA 7(a) loan application (~$60,000, payment <$900/mo)
Prepared: 2026-08 · Format follows what an SBA lender expects ("numbers + assumptions — show your work")
This is the "assumptions" document SBA lenders require alongside the projection. Every number in the CSV traces back to a stated assumption here. Figures are estimates from the business plan and industry benchmarks; actuals will vary.
Revenue assumptions
- Average ticket: $8.00 — blended across drip, espresso drinks, specialty drinks, and food add-ons (consistent with the business plan and the local market-needs analysis).
- Operating days: 26/month — 6 days/week (closed Sundays), ~312 days/year.
- Revenue formula:
Customers/Day × $8.00 × 26 days. - Year 1 ramp (customers/day): a new location builds a customer base — it does NOT open at full volume. Monthly ramp: 40 → 55 → 65 → 75 → 82 → 88 → 92 → 95 → 97 → 98 → 99 → 100. This reaches the business plan's 100/day target by month 12. (A flat 100/day from day one would be non-credible to a lender; the ramp is the honest, defensible curve.)
- Year 2: hold 100 customers/day and apply a 5% revenue lift (modest price/traffic growth), → ~$21,840/month.
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
- 15% of revenue — coffee, milk, syrups, cups/lids, food. Supported by the ~6× (600%) markup grid
in
purchase-pricing.csv(e.g., espresso shot cost ~$0.35 → sells in a ~$4–5 drink). COGS scales with revenue (it is variable, not fixed). - Gross profit = Revenue − COGS (≈ 85% gross margin).
Operating expenses (monthly)
| Line | Amount | Assumption |
|---|---|---|
| Payroll (loaded) | $5,840 | Location Manager (FT, ~$18/hr loaded ≈ $2,880) + part-time staff ($2,240) + part-time marketing ($720). "Loaded" = includes employer payroll taxes. Year 2: +3% cost-of-living raise → $6,015. |
| Lot rent | $750 | Leased high-traffic parking spot ($500–750/mo range; using top of range). |
| Insurance | $330 | General liability + workers' comp. |
| Fuel / propane | $130 | Generator fuel + propane. |
| Water / waste | $200 | Fresh-water fill + gray/black tank pump-outs (~every 2–3 weeks). |
| Cellular / data | $75 | 4G/5G plan for POS + cameras + remote management. |
| Square fees | 2.7% of revenue | Card processing — variable, scales with sales. |
| Misc / repairs | $300 | Maintenance reserve, small repairs, supplies. |
Loan assumptions (the interest expense)
- Amount: $60,000 SBA 7(a) — funds trailer + buildout + equipment + working-capital cushion. Sized so the payment stays under $900/mo even at the worst realistic rate (see below).
- Rate: 12.75% APR (variable; the small-loan rate cap = Prime ~6.75% + 6.0%). Modeled at the cap as the worst case; a well-qualified borrower may negotiate 11.5–12%, which lowers the payment further.
- Term: 10 years (120 months), fully amortizing. The 10-year term is what keeps ~$60K under $900/mo — a 7-year term would cap the loan near $51K for the same payment.
- Monthly payment (P+I): ~$887.04 — under the $900 ceiling, guaranteed at the rate cap. Only the interest portion is tax-deductible; principal is not. Interest starts ~$638/mo, declining.
- If staying under $900 is a hard limit: ask the lender for a fixed rate — variable 7(a) rates rise if Prime rises, which could push a variable loan over $900 later. Fixed locks $60K under $900.
- One-time SBA guaranty fee (~$1,000–1,500) typically financed into the loan (not a monthly line).
- Sizing rationale: max loan keeping payment <$900 is ~$60,900 at the 12.75% cap; $60,000 is the round, safe target (~$887/mo). Larger amounts ($63–65K) only fit under $900 at better-than-cap rates.
Results (from the CSV)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Year 1 net profit | ~$66,600 (ramping) |
| Year 2 net profit | ~$111,400 (steady 100/day) |
| Steady-state monthly net (100/day) | ~$8,600/month |
| Break-even | ~50 customers/day (matches business plan's ~51) |
| Customers/day for ~$3,000/mo to Sam (85% share) | ~71/day |
| Loan payment | ~$887/mo ($60K, 10yr, 12.75% cap — under the $900 ceiling) |
Key break-even & target notes
- Break-even ≈ 50 customers/day → covers all fixed costs + the loan payment. Below this, the trailer loses money.
- ~71 customers/day → business nets ~$3,530/mo, so Sam's 85% ≈ $3,000/mo (before setting aside taxes). This is comfortably below the 100/day plan target.
- The $3K profit floor is hit well before full ramp — around month 4–5 of Year 1.
- Tax reserve: set aside ~35% of your 85% share for income taxes (separate from the payroll taxes already inside "Payroll"). Loan principal is NOT deductible; only interest is.
For the lender packet, pair this with:
- The 24-month CSV (
daily-pour-sba-projection.csv) - Business plan (
business-plan.html) - Trailer/equipment quote + supplier list (
supplier-research.html,purchase-pricing.csv) - Owner equity contribution + personal financial statement (lenders require owner "skin in the game")
Estimates for lender evaluation. Have an Indiana CPA confirm tax treatment for a multi-member LLC before finalizing.