5.4 KiB
The Daily Pour — 5-Year Self-Funded Fleet Model (v2)
Companion to: fleet-model-5yr-monthly.csv (60-month simulation)
Strategy: Borrow $50K once (Trailer 1) → pay it back on a ~3-year schedule (not rushed) so
cash frees up early → self-fund every subsequent trailer from after-tax retained cash. Never borrow
again. Target 120 customers/day per trailer. Labor: full Gusto (employed), no staffing agency.
Prepared: 2026-08 · Tax-accurate (pass-through, Sam 85% share, ~35% reserve, Section 179).
Reflects Sam's borrowing doctrine: borrow once only to break the cold-start; then self-fund forever. v2 changes from the first model: (1) loan payoff relaxed from ~13 months to a ~3-year schedule so cash accumulates for growth sooner; (2) Trailer 2 self-funded at the earliest feasible month (~17); (3) labor is full Gusto (employed), not a staffing agency.
Key result
| Milestone | Result |
|---|---|
| Loan payment | ~$1,661/mo ($50K, 12%, 3-yr schedule) — paid off ~month 37 |
| Trailer 2 | Month 17 (earliest self-funding is feasible — see note) |
| 10 trailers reached | Month 50 (Year 5) — fully self-funded off the one loan |
| Year 5 annual revenue | ~$2.83M |
| Year 5 annual operating profit | ~$1.42M |
| Year 5 cash reserve | ~$1.83M |
Verdict: 10 trailers in 5 years, self-funded off a single $50K loan, is achievable — with discipline and if each trailer hits ~120/day. After Year 2, cash is never the bottleneck; operations (hiring managers, securing lots, buildout time) is.
⚠️ Note on your "Trailer 2 at month 9" request
Month 9 is not feasible self-funded. By month 9, Trailer 1 (still mid-ramp, and you're carrying the loan + tax reserve) has generated only ~$28K retained cash — short of the ~$65K needed ($50K build + $15K buffer). The earliest a single ramping trailer can fund the next is ~month 17. To launch at month 9 you'd have to borrow again or borrow bigger up front (~$100K) — both rejected in favor of your "borrow once" doctrine. Month 17 is also healthier operationally: Trailer 1 is fully ramped and proven before you scale.
Trailer launch schedule (derived, not assumed)
| Trailer | Launch | Year | Funded by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Month 1 | Y1 | $50K loan |
| 2 | Month 17 | Y2 | Retained cash |
| 3 | Month 22 | Y2 | Retained cash |
| 4 | Month 26 | Y3 | Retained cash |
| 5 | Month 30 | Y3 | Retained cash |
| 6 | Month 34 | Y3 | Retained cash |
| 7 | Month 38 | Y4 | Retained cash |
| 8 | Month 42 | Y4 | Retained cash |
| 9 | Month 46 | Y4 | Retained cash |
| 10 | Month 50 | Y5 | Retained cash |
After Trailer 2, roughly one new trailer every ~4 months — paced by the operational cap, not by cash.
Assumptions
Per-trailer economics (at maturity, 120/day)
- Avg ticket $8.00, 26 operating days/mo → mature revenue ~$24,960/mo.
- COGS 15%, Square fees 2.7% (scale with revenue).
- Fixed opex per trailer $7,625/mo: payroll $5,840 (full Gusto — employed manager @ $18/hr + part-time, ~15% employer burden handled via Gusto) + lot $750 + insurance $330 + fuel $130 + water $200 + cellular $75 + misc $300.
- 12-month ramp per trailer from its own launch: 40 → 55 → 65 → 75 → 82 → 88 → 92 → 95 → 100 → 108 → 114 → 120 customers/day, then hold 120.
The one loan (Trailer 1)
- $50,000, 12% APR, 3-year amortizing → ~$1,661/mo, paid on schedule (not rushed) so cash builds for growth. Clears ~month 37. Only interest is tax-deductible; principal is not.
Taxes
- Pass-through LLC — Sam taxed on his 85% share whether distributed or not (phantom income; OA §10.1 tax-distribution clause funds it).
- ~35% reserve on Sam's share of taxable profit, set aside monthly before cash is used to build.
- Section 179: ~$40K of each ~$50K trailer deductible in its purchase year → lowers taxable profit in build years, speeds the cycle. (CPA-dependent.)
- Kiowa's 15% assumed retained for growth in early years — if distributed, self-funding slows.
Reserve / build rules
- Keep $15K operating buffer in cash at all times.
- Build a new trailer only when cash − $50K stays above the buffer.
- Operational cap: max 3 launches/year, ≥3 months apart — you can't stand up trailers faster than you can hire managers, secure lots, and build. This cap (not cash) limits Years 3–5.
What it proves / doesn't
- Proves: the borrow-once, self-fund doctrine works; after Year 2 cash compounds faster than you can operationally deploy it.
- Doesn't prove 120/day — that's a marketing/location/product problem, not finance. At 100/day the timeline stretches ~15–20%; below ~50/day a trailer is a drag. Model assumes every trailer ramps to 120.
Risks / levers
- 120/day is the whole ballgame — visibility, product, repeat customers, good locations.
- Operational scaling (managers, lots, SOPs) is the real Year 3–5 constraint — build the hiring/SOP machine early.
- Kiowa's 15% treatment (retain vs. distribute) affects cycle speed — clarify with CPA/OA.
- Section 179 timing is a CPA decision affecting build-year cash.
- Projection, not a guarantee. Have an Indiana CPA validate tax treatment (pass-through, §179, S-corp timing) — Tracie, Sept 1.
Model: monthly 60-month simulation. Estimates for planning; confirm tax specifics with a CPA.