6d76305c6d
- Move infrastructure into businesses/00-infrastructure; add 01-06 numbered dirs ordered by importance (secure, support, systems, cloud, web, software) - Add per-business branding.html (accent color scheme + ChatGPT logo prompt) - Add NN-name.md scaffold/research/todo docs for the six planned divisions - Make divisions/ the formal-docs library: parent + infrastructure briefs, legal-structure, investment-research - Add root README map and businesses/ index; empty READMEs per dir - Fix all relative links broken by the moves
98 lines
4.6 KiB
Markdown
98 lines
4.6 KiB
Markdown
# SNS Infrastructure — 12-Month Cash-Flow Model
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**Purpose:** A simple, lender-ready month-by-month projection for Business #1,
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based on the loan-funded runway + builder-operator + contractor-labor plan. Pairs
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with [`operator-compensation-proposal.md`](./operator-compensation-proposal.md).
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Editable version: [`cash-flow-model.csv`](./cash-flow-model.csv).
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> Illustrative projection, not a guarantee. A lender will also want the operator's
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> real pipeline. Adjust the assumptions in the CSV to model your own scenarios.
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---
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## Assumptions
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| Input | Value | Notes |
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|-------|-------|-------|
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| Loan drawn (month 0) | **$75,000** | Payroll runway + startup + buffer |
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| Operator loaded cost | **$9,600/mo** | $6,500 base + ~28% burden + $500 insurance + $500 vehicle + $300 software |
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| Gross margin | **40%** | Revenue minus contractor labor + materials |
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| Commission | **10% of gross profit** | Builder incentive, paid monthly |
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| Loan repayment | **$1,400/mo, starting month 7** | Assumes 6-month deferral; ~$75k over ~6 yrs |
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| One-time (month 1) | **$12,000** | Tools/certifier ($8k) + launch/marketing ($4k) |
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| Build bonus | **$10,000 in month 7** | Milestone hit by month 6 (see below) |
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| Owner draw | **$0** | Owner is part-time, unpaid, keeps a W-2 job |
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**Contractor labor is inside the 40% margin** — it's paid from each project's
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revenue and never drawn from the loan.
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---
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## Monthly Projection
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Dollars. "Cash Balance" starts from the $75,000 loan draw.
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| Month | Revenue | Gross Profit (40%) | Fixed OpEx | Commission | Loan Pmt | One-time / Bonus | Net Cash Flow | Cash Balance |
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|------:|--------:|-------------------:|-----------:|-----------:|---------:|-----------------:|--------------:|-------------:|
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| 0 (draw) | — | — | — | — | — | — | +75,000 | **75,000** |
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| 1 | 0 | 0 | 9,600 | 0 | 0 | 12,000 | −21,600 | 53,400 |
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| 2 | 7,000 | 2,800 | 9,600 | 280 | 0 | 0 | −7,080 | 46,320 |
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| 3 | 14,000 | 5,600 | 9,600 | 560 | 0 | 0 | −4,560 | 41,760 |
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| 4 | 22,000 | 8,800 | 9,600 | 880 | 0 | 0 | −1,680 | 40,080 |
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| 5 | 28,000 | 11,200 | 9,600 | 1,120 | 0 | 0 | **+480** | 40,560 |
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| 6 | 34,000 | 13,600 | 9,600 | 1,360 | 0 | 0 | +2,640 | 43,200 |
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| 7 | 40,000 | 16,000 | 9,600 | 1,600 | 1,400 | 10,000 (bonus) | −6,600 | 36,600 |
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| 8 | 44,000 | 17,600 | 9,600 | 1,760 | 1,400 | 0 | +4,840 | 41,440 |
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| 9 | 48,000 | 19,200 | 9,600 | 1,920 | 1,400 | 0 | +6,280 | 47,720 |
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| 10 | 50,000 | 20,000 | 9,600 | 2,000 | 1,400 | 0 | +7,000 | 54,720 |
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| 11 | 52,000 | 20,800 | 9,600 | 2,080 | 1,400 | 0 | +7,720 | 62,440 |
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| 12 | 54,000 | 21,600 | 9,600 | 2,160 | 1,400 | 0 | +8,440 | **70,880** |
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**Year 1 totals:** Revenue **$393,000** · Gross profit **$157,200** · Commission
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**$15,720** · Fixed OpEx **$115,200** · Loan payments **$8,400** · One-time
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**$12,000** · Bonus **$10,000**.
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---
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## What the Model Shows
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- **Cash never runs out.** Lowest point is ~**$36,600** (month 7, when the bonus +
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first loan payments land). The $75k loan carries the business comfortably.
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- **Monthly break-even ~month 5** — gross profit first exceeds monthly costs.
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- **Self-funding milestone hit by month 6** — gross profit ≥ the operator's loaded
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cost (~$8,300) for 3 straight months (M4–M6), triggering the **full $10k bonus**
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(paid month 7).
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- **By month 12** the business throws off ~**$8k/month** of surplus to service the
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loan and build reserve — it's standing on its own, which is your green light to
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start Business #2.
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---
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## Downside Sensitivity (read this)
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The ramp above assumes the builder-operator gains traction steadily despite a
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part-time owner. Stress-test it:
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- **At ~50% of this revenue ramp**, gross profit crosses the operator's cost closer
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to **month 9–10**, not 6. The loan still covers payroll through the runway, but
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the cushion gets thin by year-end and the bonus tiers down (the $6k/$3k tiers in
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the comp proposal exist for exactly this).
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- **Biggest risks:** slower sales cycles (B2B jobs take 1–3 months to close),
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thinner margins on early jobs, or the operator being pulled into delivery instead
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of selling. Keep the **loan buffer** and don't spend the reserve early.
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- **Best hedge:** land 1–2 **recurring** service/maintenance clients early —
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predictable monthly gross profit de-risks the whole ramp.
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Model your own low/base/high cases by editing the Revenue and Gross-Margin columns
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in the CSV.
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---
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## Formulas (for the spreadsheet)
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- Gross Profit = Revenue × Gross Margin (40%)
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- Commission = Gross Profit × 10%
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- Fixed OpEx = $9,600 (constant; raise it when you add a W-2 tech)
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- Net Cash Flow = Gross Profit − Fixed OpEx − Commission − Loan Pmt − One-time − Bonus
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- Cash Balance = prior Cash Balance + Net Cash Flow
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