# The Daily Pour — 5-Year Self-Funded Fleet Model (v2)

**Companion to:** `fleet-model-5yr-monthly.csv` (60-month simulation)
**Strategy:** Borrow **$50K once** (Trailer 1) → pay it back on a **~3-year schedule** (not rushed) so
cash frees up early → **self-fund every subsequent trailer** from after-tax retained cash. Never borrow
again. Target **120 customers/day** per trailer. **Labor: full Gusto (employed), no staffing agency.**
**Prepared:** 2026-08 · Tax-accurate (pass-through, Sam 85% share, ~35% reserve, Section 179).

> Reflects Sam's borrowing doctrine: borrow **once** only to break the cold-start; then self-fund forever.
> v2 changes from the first model: (1) loan payoff relaxed from ~13 months to a **~3-year schedule** so
> cash accumulates for growth sooner; (2) **Trailer 2 self-funded at the earliest feasible month (~17)**;
> (3) labor is **full Gusto** (employed), not a staffing agency.

---

## Key result

| Milestone | Result |
|-----------|--------|
| **Loan payment** | **~$1,661/mo** ($50K, 12%, 3-yr schedule) — paid off ~month 37 |
| **Trailer 2** | **Month 17** (earliest self-funding is feasible — see note) |
| **10 trailers reached** | **Month 50 (Year 5)** — fully self-funded off the one loan |
| Year 5 annual revenue | ~$2.83M |
| Year 5 annual operating profit | ~$1.42M |
| Year 5 cash reserve | ~$1.83M |

**Verdict: 10 trailers in 5 years, self-funded off a single $50K loan, is achievable** — with discipline
and if each trailer hits ~120/day. After Year 2, cash is never the bottleneck; **operations** (hiring
managers, securing lots, buildout time) is.

## ⚠️ Note on your "Trailer 2 at month 9" request
**Month 9 is not feasible self-funded.** By month 9, Trailer 1 (still mid-ramp, and you're carrying the
loan + tax reserve) has generated only ~$28K retained cash — short of the ~$65K needed ($50K build +
$15K buffer). The earliest a single ramping trailer can fund the next is **~month 17**. To launch at
month 9 you'd have to **borrow again** or **borrow bigger up front (~$100K)** — both rejected in favor of
your "borrow once" doctrine. Month 17 is also healthier operationally: Trailer 1 is fully ramped and
proven before you scale.

## Trailer launch schedule (derived, not assumed)

| Trailer | Launch | Year | Funded by |
|---------|--------|------|-----------|
| 1 | Month 1 | Y1 | **$50K loan** |
| 2 | Month 17 | Y2 | Retained cash |
| 3 | Month 22 | Y2 | Retained cash |
| 4 | Month 26 | Y3 | Retained cash |
| 5 | Month 30 | Y3 | Retained cash |
| 6 | Month 34 | Y3 | Retained cash |
| 7 | Month 38 | Y4 | Retained cash |
| 8 | Month 42 | Y4 | Retained cash |
| 9 | Month 46 | Y4 | Retained cash |
| 10 | Month 50 | Y5 | Retained cash |

*After Trailer 2, roughly one new trailer every ~4 months — paced by the operational cap, not by cash.*

## Assumptions

### Per-trailer economics (at maturity, 120/day)
- Avg ticket **$8.00**, **26 operating days/mo** → mature revenue ~$24,960/mo.
- **COGS 15%**, **Square fees 2.7%** (scale with revenue).
- Fixed opex per trailer **$7,625/mo**: **payroll $5,840 (full Gusto — employed manager @ $18/hr + part-time, ~15% employer burden handled via Gusto)** + lot $750 + insurance $330 + fuel $130 + water $200 + cellular $75 + misc $300.
- **12-month ramp** per trailer from its own launch: 40 → 55 → 65 → 75 → 82 → 88 → 92 → 95 → 100 → 108 → 114 → 120 customers/day, then hold 120.

### The one loan (Trailer 1)
- **$50,000, 12% APR, 3-year amortizing → ~$1,661/mo**, paid on schedule (not rushed) so cash builds for growth. Clears ~month 37. Only interest is tax-deductible; principal is not.

### Taxes
- **Pass-through LLC** — Sam taxed on his **85% share** whether distributed or not (phantom income; OA §10.1 tax-distribution clause funds it).
- **~35% reserve** on Sam's share of *taxable* profit, set aside monthly before cash is used to build.
- **Section 179:** ~$40K of each ~$50K trailer deductible in its purchase year → lowers taxable profit in build years, speeds the cycle. (CPA-dependent.)
- Kiowa's 15% assumed **retained for growth** in early years — if distributed, self-funding slows.

### Reserve / build rules
- Keep **$15K operating buffer** in cash at all times.
- Build a new trailer only when cash − $50K stays above the buffer.
- **Operational cap: max 3 launches/year, ≥3 months apart** — you can't stand up trailers faster than you can hire managers, secure lots, and build. This cap (not cash) limits Years 3–5.

## What it proves / doesn't
- **Proves:** the borrow-once, self-fund doctrine works; after Year 2 cash compounds faster than you can operationally deploy it.
- **Doesn't prove 120/day** — that's a marketing/location/product problem, not finance. At 100/day the timeline stretches ~15–20%; below ~50/day a trailer is a drag. Model assumes every trailer ramps to 120.

## Risks / levers
- **120/day is the whole ballgame** — visibility, product, repeat customers, good locations.
- **Operational scaling** (managers, lots, SOPs) is the real Year 3–5 constraint — build the hiring/SOP machine early.
- **Kiowa's 15%** treatment (retain vs. distribute) affects cycle speed — clarify with CPA/OA.
- **Section 179 timing** is a CPA decision affecting build-year cash.
- **Projection, not a guarantee.** Have an Indiana CPA validate tax treatment (pass-through, §179, S-corp timing) — Tracie, Sept 1.

*Model: monthly 60-month simulation. Estimates for planning; confirm tax specifics with a CPA.*
